The Sports Curmudgeon

Were I a profiteer, I would announce that I had a spectacular weekend of “mythical picking” last week and was now going to charge money for folks to be allowed to lay their eyes on my weekly selections. I made 17 picks last weekend. My record was 16-1. That produced a Mythical Profit of $1490 for the week.

Such a huge week was even sufficient to drag my sorry-assed record from the depths of red ink into the glorious state of Mythical Profit for the season. The season totals now stand at 118-106-3 for a cumulative Mythical Profit of $260.

I am not a profiteer; I am not going into the tout business. And I hope that answers the questions posed by more than a few readers who tripped over last week’s incredible record and wanted to know how they could purchase the “service” that I must have on the side that picks only those few games that I really like. Now hear this, that service does not exist and I’m not going to start it.

In case anyone thinks that I’m going “all moral on you”, that’s not the point. I don’t encourage anyone to wager on anything if he doesn’t want to, but I also do not discourage anyone from getting down on a couple of lines a week if that interests him. And I always encourage moderation in wagering. What I do not want to do is to put myself in the position of being responsible for other people making wagers they might not have made had I not made some pronouncement on some proposition. I do not generally avoid responsibility, but that’s not one I want to take on.

I very specifically do not wish to associate myself with the shriekers on radio and TV who hawk their selection services with shrill voices and the promise of inside information. I can shriek with the best of them, but I assure you that I have no inside information. Over the years, I have made the Internet acquaintance of a gentleman in Houston, TX who has provided wagering advice to clients in the past. I don’t know if he continues to do that but “The Houston Gentleman” definitely knows his way around the world of wagering and spreads and totals and propositions. If anyone here really wants a recommendation for a pay-as-you-go football picking service, I’d be willing to ask “The Houston Gentleman” for a referral on your behalf if he’s no longer “working with clients”.

Just in case anyone thinks that last weekend was a normal one and is preparing to bet the farm on whatever picks follow here, let me remind you that I was way behind for the year prior to last weekend’s highly unusual weekly outcome. No one should use any information here as the basis for making an actual wager involving real money. You’d have to be pretty dumb to do that - - dumb enough to think your doctor is telling you that you are a calendar when he says your days are numbered.

General Comments:

As I said last week in the wrap-up of Mythical Picks for NCAA games, picking bowl games is like playing the lottery; you don’t know which teams will show up for which games with a sense of importance and focus out there on the field. I likened college bowl games to NFL Exhibition games in terms of wagering prospects. I stand by that comment.

Now let me say that many NFL games in December are just a small step above that level of guesswork when it comes to wagering propositions. The NFL season is mathematically over for a few teams and even the coaches of a half dozen other teams know that all they are doing is pumping sunshine up the butts of the local fans by talking about how there is still a glimmer of hope for a playoff slot. Now hear this; the number of teams with REAL playoff shots is no more than sixteen – and twelve will get in. There are not 24 teams with any REAL hopes here.

The players know this; the coaches know this; the performances on the field will demonstrate this as soon as adversity strikes one of those 8-10 playoff pretenders. And you don’t want to have money riding on a game that needs for something like that to happen or not happen in order for you to cash your ticket. And if the game happens to involve two teams with no real hope, then the guys are “playing for pride”. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want my money riding on which group of spoiled and self-entitled athletes will show more or less “pride” in their professional accomplishments – as opposed to their posing – on any given Sunday.

Oh and then there’s the “weather factor” in December for more than a few NFL cities with outdoor venues…

That’s a long way to tell you, there are lots of games from now until December 31 that should not have a dollar wagered on them. But I’ll still make Mythical Picks because this is just a lark.

There are two games this week matching teams that are out of it. These games will be bleak affairs. I think you’ll be able to figure out which games they are as you read on…

The NFL Network had Seattle/SF on Thursday night this week and the spread on that game varied from 9.5 to 10.5 at various sportsbooks with Seattle as the favorite. The 49ers won outright by 10 so they beat the spread by about 3 TDs. If this is the time of year when it is difficult to pick games because motivation may or may not find its way onto the field, then it is even more difficult to wager on games with double-digit spreads. Sadly, there will be five other games at or right up against double-digit spreads this weekend. Forget another weekend of 16-1; I’ll be thrilled to come out of this weekend ‘s card even for the week.

(Sat Nite) Dallas – 3 at Atlanta (43): This is an NFL Network game in prime time on Saturday night. Remember that NFLN is evil and you need to boycott wagering on NFLN games. This is a mythical pick; you should make only a mythical wager. Atlanta still has a playoff shot; for Dallas to miss the playoffs in the NFC would take a very serious self-inflicted wound. Both teams are flawed. Atlanta lives by running the football but they have two running backs who were injured in last week’s game. The “story” is that Michael Vick may play some running back this week; that’s probably great news for the Panthers and Eagles who are in the playoff race with the Falcons and who have to play the Falcons in the next two weeks. I’ll bet they’d just love to have a Cowboy linebacker give Vick a high ankle sprain sometime this weekend. Dallas’ most glaring weakness is their inability to get their safeties to cover any pass receiver who can run faster than a hot water heater. After watching the Cowboys suck wind against the Saints, I’m beginning to wonder if the whole team slept through Bill Parcell’s speech on what it takes to win a championship. I like Dallas to win and cover here. I also like this game OVER. No parlay though…

Jets at Minnesota – 3.5 (42): I had the Jets penciled in for a wild card slot in the playoffs because of their creampuff schedule down the stretch, but when the Jets spit the bit last week at home against the Bills, I took out my eraser and made them one of the teams jockeying for position. Minnesota’s win last week gives them a real shot at a 9-7 record because this is the best opponent they’ll play for the rest of the year. The loser of this game can book a Caribbean cruise for the family starting on January 5th; they won’t have any team obligations to worry about. So, both teams have a reason to play hard but both teams have more than their fair share of deficiencies. The Vikes should shut down the Jets running attack because the Vikes have the best rushing defense in the NFL by almost 40 yards per game. The Jets should shut down the Vikes’ running attack because Chester Taylor has bruised ribs. I’m not convinced that the Vikings are all that good, so I’ll take the Jets with the points here.

Cleveland at Baltimore – 11 (33): Baltimore is playing for a bye in the playoffs –and maybe home field advantage throughout in case the Chargers and Colts stub their toes along the way. They hold a tiebreaker over San Diego based on an early season victory over the Chargers. Cleveland only managed 18 yards rushing on 11 carries against Pittsburgh last week and the Ravens are better defensively than the Steelers. Normally, I like a huge helping of points in a low scoring game, but I worry that the Browns might not score more than 6 points. The Browns have the 29th ranked offense in the NFL. If they score in single digits, playing the OVER is dicey too. But the Browns’ 30th ranked defense makes playing the UNDER impossible. So my wondrous Ouija board from last week will be put into action and it says to ignore my instinct and take the Ravens to win and cover here.

Houston at New England – 11 (37): Can I really take the Texans on the road here? Is Tom Brady injured and are the Pats hiding that fact? Are the Pats going to be just a tad miffed at being shut out last weekend by a division rival? The Pats need a win here because they finish the season on the road at Jax and at Tennessee. The Texans will finish with two home games and hope to win five games for the season. I think the Pats will blow the doors off the Texans’ defense this week. I’ll take the Pats to win and cover even with this fat line. [Note: I just took two consecutive teams and gave away double-digit points; that is not good at this time of year! At least the favorites are at home…]

Miami at Buffalo – 1 (34): With both teams at 6-7, this game has mathematical playoff implications – but not actual playoff implications. I don’t know how long either team can maintain the fiction here. The Bills have been strong in their last six games despite only going 3-3 in those games. The three losses have come against Indy, Jax and San Diego by a total of 7 points. Miami just shut out a team with Tom Brady at QB last week and now face a team with JP Losman at QB. I think Miami is the better team but the Dolphins are not a great road team in cold-weather venues in December. It’s not supposed to be nearly as cold in Buffalo as it could be in December, but cold with a chance of wind-driven rain makes for a home field advantage for the Bills when Miami comes to town. I’ll take the Bills to win and cover here.

Pittsburgh – 3 at Carolina (39): Carolina has been a streaky team all year long and right now, they are on a cold streak; they can survive a loss here because the rest of the NFC wild-card contenders won’t win out. Pittsburgh is mathematically alive but faces a brutal schedule after this week; a loss here and they are toast. If Chris Weinke has to play QB, I like Pittsburgh to win big; if Delhomme’s thumb injury is minor enough for him to play the way he can play, the game will be tight. I’ll take the Steelers here to win and cover.

Washington at New Orleans – 9.5 (45): Washington suffers from the same problem that Dallas does; neither of their safeties can cover the figures on Mount Rushmore. That’s why they’ve given up more TD passes than any team in the NFL so far this year (25). The Saints will make a bunch of long gains through the air in this game. If the Saints get up by two TDs early on, this game could be a real rout because Skins rookie QB, Jason Campbell, shows promise but isn’t ready to lead a big comeback against a playoff caliber team just yet. The Skins’ only avenue to keep this game under the number is for them to control the clock by running the ball thereby keeping the Saints’ offense on the sidelines. They could do that because the Saints run defense isn’t all that stout; but they won’t, because the Redskins’ coaching staff will abandon the run game even if it’s working. They’ve done that in each of the last two weeks. The Saints win and cover here.

Jax – 3 at Tennessee (40.5): Don’t look now, but the Titans are 6-7 and that is the same record as the Steelers. Tell the truth, back in October, you did not think that could possibly be the case come Week 15. Well it is the case. You have to think that Jax wants this game badly in order to maintain their wild card status in the AFC. If so, the game sets up for them - - assuming that Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew were only sore last week and not injured. Against the worst rush defense in the league last week, Jax ran for 375 yards and 44 points. The Titans rush defense is ranked 28th in the NFL; the Jags should run at will again. Here’s the rub; all season long, the Jags have been miserable on the road; they’ve already lost to Washington, Houston and Buffalo on the road; and they certainly have the potential to let down after their big win over the Colts last week. Call this a coaching challenge for Jack Del Rio; he has to have that team ready to beat a team they ought to beat on a day when they need a win even if they are playing that game on Mars. I have no doubt that Jeff Fisher will have the Titans ready to play. The Jags are the better team but not at the key QB position. I’m tempted to take the Jags and lay the points but I’ll resist that temptation. I want this game OVER.

Tampa Bay at Chicago – 13.5 (33): Here’s another Florida team that likes playing in warm weather rolling into a cold and windy northern venue in December. Add to the geography factor this datum – the Bucs haven’t won on the road all year long. Of course they haven’t won all that often at home either… The Bucs may play rotating quarterbacks this week or maybe they will sit Bruce Gradkowski down and put Tim Rattay in there for a stretch. It will not matter; the Bucs just aren’t going to score a lot on the Bears’ defense. The real question would seem to be whether or not the Bears can score on the Bucs’ defense and the answer is “Yes, they can.” The Bears can run on the Bucs and lots of teams have shown that the Bucs pass defense is not nearly as fearsome as it once was; it gives up 210 yards per game. I really want to take the Bucs here with all those points - - but I can’t. I’d like to take the game OVER but the Bucs might not score more than 3 points - - so I can’t. I’ll take the Bears to win and cover here and bang my head against the wall for taking yet another double-digit favorite this week. Ouch!

Detroit at Green Bay – 5 (43.5): These are two bad teams and here is a law of nature equivalent in validity to the Second Law of Thermodynamics:

1 Bad Team + 1 Bad Team = 2 Bad Teams = 1 Horrid Football Game

The Packers are not nearly invincible at home this year; if my counting is correct, they are 1-5 at Lambeau Field. Not to worry Packer-lovers, the Lions are 0-6 on the road. The Lions definitely believe in equality and a lack of discrimination; they stink at home and they stink on the road; they are equal opportunity stinkers. In case you think that the loss of RB, Kevin Jones, will hamper the Lions’ rushing attack, don’t worry. The Lions rushing attack was last in the NFL with Jones in the line-up; so, there isn’t much further it can fall. Both defenses are less than mediocre by a good measure; so, I’ll take this game OVER.

Denver – 2.5 at Arizona (41): Are the Cardinals on a push to save Dennis Green’s job? They’ve won three of their last four games. Nevertheless, they still have the 31st ranked defense in the league and the 26th ranked offense. Denver has lost four in a row, but they are not yet out of the playoff hunt. Denver must win this game. If rookie QB, Jay Cutler, is ever going to get a win this season, it ought to be against this rag-tag defense that gives up 234 yards per game through the air. If Cutler gags on this assignment, they ought to send him to NFL Europe this spring for some extra training. I think Denver wins big here because they have to and because they’re a much better team. I’ll lay the points and take the Broncos.

Philly at Giants – 5.5 (43.5): The winner here takes a giant step forward in terms of the wild card race in the NFC; the loser isn’t “out of it” but the loser has just lost its margin for error. That should make for a good game even if these teams were not long-time division rivals who “just plain don’t like each other,” { /Keith Jackson } The Eagles’ wins this year have come against an unimpressive bunch and the Eagles have shown the ability to lose to the Bucs and the Titans. The Giants are hardly models of consistency and team harmony. Even when the game matters a lot, there are times when you just can’t figure out how the two teams will come out and play and this is one of those times. And that middling spread doesn’t help make a choice… I like the game OVER.

St. Louis at Oakland – 2.5 (39.5): These are two bad teams and here is a law of nature equivalent in validity to the Second Law of Thermodynamics:

1 Bad Team + 1 Bad Team = 2 Bad Teams = 1 Horrid Football Game

Yes, I checked; the Raiders are favored in this game; that’s not a typo. And why not? The Rams have been awful since beating the Packers in the fifth game of the season. Teams have run on the Rams to the tune of 155 yards per game so it’s not inconceivable that even the Raiders might be able to generate some rushing attack here to set up what passes for their passing attack. Earlier this year, the Raiders traded WR Doug Gabriel to the Pats. Last week, the Pats cut Gabriel for lack of production on the field and intimated that he didn’t exactly bust a gut in practice. So of course, the Raiders signed him back up immediately. Just what this team needs – another malingering wide receiver. St. Louis is a dome team that does not travel well and Oakland’s field is the antithesis of a dome field. My question is this: Do the Raiders have sufficient pride to go out and win a game here even if it means they will fall out of the race to have the #1 overall pick in the draft? Hold onto your hats; I’m taking the Raiders and laying the points here this week. Yowza!

KC at San Diego – 9 (47): Let’s see; we can pencil Ladanian Tomlinson in for three TDs and Phillip Rivers for two TD passes. That gives the Chargers 35 points… It could happen; but it won’t. The Chiefs defense is good enough to make the Chargers work hard. The problem for KC is that San Diego will probably load up to stop the run and dare Trent Green to beat them through the air, which he won’t be able to do. The Chargers lost by a field goal at Arrowhead earlier this year but haven’t lost since (they’ve won seven in a row). The Chargers want to win out to have a shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs so I don’t expect them to be flat. With the passing of Chief’s owner Lamar Hunt this week, the team is likely to come out and play a strong game – as did the Giants when Wellington Mara passed away. I think the Chargers will win but this line is fat; so, I’ll take the Chiefs with the points.

(Mon Nite) Cincy at Indy – 3 (53.5): This is not the “biggest game of the week” because the loser is not indelibly out of the playoff race whilst the winner is certainly in. But in terms of a marquis match-up of QBs and WRs, there aren’t a lot of games that would be better. The score in this game should change more frequently than Paris Hilton changes “escorts”. I don’t think that the Bengals run the ball nearly well enough to gouge the Colts’ defense the way the Jags did last week or the way the Titans did two weeks ago. So I don’t see a situation where Peyton Manning is spending his entire game watching from the sidelines or playing “ from down 14”. Indeed, this game could wind up with the loser scoring 30 points. I like this game OVER.

Good luck

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…