The Sports Curmudgeon®

It’s that time of year again when I make my NFL predictions and guesstimates. As always, I’ll leave these up on the website so that everyone can make fun of my mistakes as the year goes on. And at the end of the season, I’ll go back and grade myself on what I said here in September with regard to the degree that these words match what actually happened during the year.

For the rabid and frothing fans who will write me nasty e-mails in December about how I dissed their favorite team or how stupid I was not to recognize that team’s incipient greatness, let me make two points now:

I am writing these comments before the season starts and not after the season is mostly or completely over. That means there will be some errors. If I could write this and backdate it after the season was over, you’d be amazed at how accurate my analyses would be.

The NFL is a league of changing team fortunes. In each of the last seven seasons, the NFL playoffs included five teams or more than had not been in the playoffs in the preceding year. Last year, eight of the twelve teams had not been in the playoffs in 2004.

So, NFL predictions for the 2006 season might not be nearly as easy as they might look - - from the perspective of January 2007.

AFC West:

There are lots of uncertainties in this division. There are two new head coaches, two new offensive coordinators, two new starting quarterbacks, and a couple of porous defenses that hope to get turned around this year. Among that chaos, there is one island of stability and that is Mike Shannahan in Denver.

I like the Broncos to win this division comfortably. It would take a Jake Plummer meltdown of Chernobyl proportions or a long string of injuries to all the wrong players for them to fall short in the division. Plummer is capable of melting-down, but I don’t think he can be bad enough to keep the Broncos from the top. The team got rid of unhappy Ashley Lelie and will replace him with a happier and more athletically gifted Javon Walker. Mike Anderson was sent on his merry way and the Broncos will use an undrafted free agent rookie, Mike Bell, and returning speedster, Tatum Bell, at running back. How long will it be before some Denver sportswriter calls one of these guys “Ding” and the other one “Dong”? I’ll give Denver 12 wins this year and a bye in the playoffs.

Even though Philip Rivers is new to the starting ranks as a QB and even though I’m not sold on his arm strength, I think the Chargers are the second best team in the AFC West. I know that Keenan McCardell had a great year last year, but he is now 36 years old and he is the deep threat on the Chargers’ roster. That’s not good. The team needs someone to be able to keep defenses from ganging up on Antonio Gates and LaDanian Tomlinson. Last year, the Chargers had the top ranked rush defense but their secondary didn’t play to the same level. That needs to improve this year. The reason I give the Chargers second place in this division is the schedule. Denver and San Diego have 14 common opponents this year. In the other two games, Denver gets to play the Colts and the Pats; the Chargers get to play the Bills and the Titans. I’ll give San Diego 10 wins this year.

The Chiefs are an enigma. I can see the Chiefs breaking even this year; I can also see them winning only 4 games. There are so many question marks around this team that you could dress them out in The Riddler’s costume from the old Batman series. Can the Chiefs’ offense be nearly as good with Al Saunders gone? Can Herman Edwards allow an offensive philosophy that takes some risks? Can Herman Edwards motivate the defense to play smarter and better than it has for the last two years? Can the Chiefs pass defense rise from 30th ranked in the league to 15th? Can Larry Johnson do as well as he did last year with neither Willie Roaf nor John Welbourn in front of him at offensive tackle? Can Kyle Turley still play offensive tackle? Do you know the way to San José? Just checking to see if you’re still paying attention… I like Herm Edwards as a coach so I’ll predict that the Chiefs will win 7 games this year; I’m hard pressed to see them winning any more than that.

If you think the Chiefs are an enigma, what would you call the Raiders? Here’s a team that has been 13-35 in the last three years; before that, they were in the Super Bowl. The Raiders offensive line was mediocre last year; now on the coaching staff they have Art Shell, Irv Eatman and Jackie Slater. Too bad these guys can’t suit up… Just as the Chargers will probably be using the “horizontal passing game” because they don’t have any deep threat WRs, the Raiders will be going bombs away with Randy Moss and Jerry Porter whenever possible. The question is who will be doing the throwing. I am not an Aaron Brooks fan; he makes more mistakes in a month than Jake Plummer does in a season. And the back-ups are really questionable when you realize that the team brought Jeff George into camp with about 10 days left in the exhibition season. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned that the Raiders’ defense stunk in spades last year and will need major contributions from a couple of rookies to make significant improvements. Overall, I’ll give the Raiders 6 wins for the year. That’s a 50% improvement from last year!

AFC South:

It’s fashionable to look at this division and say that there is about to be a changing of the guard here. Some folks think that Jax is ready to replace Indy at the top of this division; I disagree. Last year was a fine year for Jax but part of it was a mirage. Yes, they won 12 games but 9 of the 12 came against the Titans, Texans Browns, Jets, 49ers, Cardinals and Ravens. Since those games were in the 2005 season, I can look back now with full clarity and say those were not fearsome opponents on that schedule. The 2006 schedule will not be as kind to the Jaguars.

I think that the Colts will miss Edgerrin James at RB for the simple reason that he is one of the five best RBs in the league and it will be impossible not to miss him. But the Colts will survive with a RB-by-committee consisting of Dominick Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai. Given what the Colts have on the passing side of the offensive ledger, those guys will be perfectly adequate. The loss of David Thornton at linebacker may be a bigger problem for the team. And on the defensive line, the Colts need Corey Simon to shed about 30 pounds of lard from his butt and return to the aggressive DT he was with Philly a couple of years ago. The bottom line is that I like the Colts to win 12 games this year, to win the division comfortably and to have home field advantage in the playoffs.

Before Jax fans get too upset with me, I do believe the Jags will finish second in this division. My comments above were not meant to imply that I thought they’d be bottom-feeders. The challenge for the Jags this year is to score more points than they did last year; it’s about that basic. Unfortunately, WR Jimmy Smith has retired and he was the best of the lot last year. Byron Leftwich is tough, but he still makes loads of “ill-advised” throws. The Jags are more than solid on defense so this season’s outcome will depend on an offensive improvement. I’m bearish on the Jags’ offense and so I’ll give them 8 wins for the season.

Hold on to your hats here, I think the Houston Texans will finish third in this division this year. I know they only won 2 games last year, they have a rookie head coach, running back Domanick Davis is on IR for the season, and they passed on Reggie Bush and Vince Young in the draft. At the moment, the RBs for the Texans are Wali Lundy, Vernand Morency and Chris Taylor. That’s not a good omen. But at least David Carr will have Eric Moulds to throw to and Jeb Putzier to catch seam passes from the TE position. And the defense isn’t nearly as awful as it sometimes appeared to be. I think that the Texans can win 5 games this year.

The Tennessee Titans are still working themselves out from under the franchise collapse that came from trying to hold on to too many vets to keep their “Super Bowl window open”. Last year, the Titans were the youngest team in the AFC; they are younger still this year. And young NFL players make mistakes and need time to grow. When the Titans opened training camp in the summer with 87 players, only six of them were over 30 years old. The Titans have a three-headed QB monster and the fans only want to see Vince Young play. Barring injuries that force the hand of the coaches early on, Titans’ fans should circle December 10 on their calendars. That’s when the Titans go to visit Houston; that’s when former Houston Oilers’ owner, Bud Adams, will “urge” the coaches to start Houston native Vince Young against the team that passed over him in the draft. But the Titans are so young that all I can give them is 4 wins this year and a really good draft slot next year.

AFC North:

There are three teams in this division who ought to aspire to the playoffs and maybe to go to the conference championship game. And then there are the Browns. This is the best of the AFC divisions; that was not the case just a couple of years ago. I think the division winner will be determined by a three-way tiebreaker; that’s how competitive this division looks to be.

I know that Ben Roethlisberger came within minutes of death in his motorcycle accident this summer, but he sure didn’t look any the worse for wear in his exhibition games. I know that the Steelers will have to replace the leadership and the energy of Jerome Bettis this year, but other than short yardage situations, Bettis was not a lynchpin of the offense. I know that Antwaan Randle-El is gone, but other than the flexibility he gave the team to run some trick plays, why is his “loss” magnified to any real importance? And the Steelers’ defense is pretty much intact. Here’s the fly in the ointment: Ben Roethlisberger will miss the season opener against Miami because of an appendectomy and might miss the next couple of games too. The Steelers open against Miami, Jax, Cincy and San Diego so there aren’t any “cupcakes” there. At the moment, Charlie Batch is the only other QB on the roster but that can’t be allowed to continue to obtain. Here’s the question, will the Steelers contact Tommy Maddox or Bubby Brister first? Frankly, the more important worry for the Steelers at the moment is Hines Ward’s hamstring. If that gives him problems all season long, the Steelers will underachieve. I’ll give the Steelers 10 wins this year and put them in a tiebreaker scenario for the division championship. Remember, Roethlisberger missed four games last year and the Steelers went 11-5.

The Bengals won this division last year; that fact seems to have faded into dimness because the wild-card Steelers won the Super Bowl. The Bengals defense was horrible down the stretch; it wasn’t all that uncommon for them to give up 300 yards passing and 30 points. That has to change this year and hopefully the addition of Sam Adams to the DL will allow the linebackers to run free and cover better in the short zones. On offense, there are two question marks. The obvious one is the degree of recovery of Carson Palmer’s knee and Palmer’s ability to replicate his 2005 season. The second one deals with a persistent Internet story about Chad Johnson coming to blows with an assistant coach at halftime of the playoff loss to the Steelers last year because he didn’t think he was getting the ball enough. That story just won’t go away and if – I said IF – it is true, then Johnson has to rein in that kind of nonsense lest he create more problems for the team than he can solve on the field. Johnson told Maxim magazine that Carson Palmer was the only player in the league that could shut him down. Said Chad, “All he has to do is not throw me the ball.” And of course, the Bengals’ season could be derailed if half the team is arrested on any given Saturday night. Given the legal issues in the off-season for the Bengals and the backgrounds of some of their draftees, this team could become known as the Cincinnati Trail Blazers by Thanksgiving. I’ll give the Bengals 10 wins this year and put them in a tiebreaker scenario for the division championship.

The Ravens should improve over their 6 wins in 2005 if their new QB can play most of the time. Since Brian Billick came to Baltimore, he has had ten starting QBs in his seven seasons there. The offense has been anything but fearsome in that time. Now he has Steve McNair at QB and while McNair’s best days are in the rearview mirror, he provides leadership and toughness at the position that hasn’t been there. Assuming that the defense remains stingy, the addition of McNair alone ought to add two wins in 2006. Jamal Lewis needs to play much better in 2006 than he did in 2005 and if he doesn’t the Ravens have Mike Anderson – late of Denver – on hand to provide a running attack. The real question for the Ravens seems to be the offensive line and its ability to dominate week in and week out. I’ll give the Ravens 10 wins this year and put them in a tie-breaker scenario for the division championship.

And then there are the Browns. Here’s the good news. They get Kellen Winslow II and Braylon Edwards back from injuries this year in addition to their first draft pick, DE Kamerion Wimbley. That’s like adding three first round picks to the team in a year. One other piece of good news, Charlie Frye is back and healthy and seems to have the tools to improve as a QB. But that’s about it when it comes to good news. The Browns are thin everywhere. Consider what happens if Frye has to miss a few games. The back up is Ken Dorsey who couldn’t make it with the 49ers as a back-up [Wow!] and whose record as a starting QB is 2-8. If RB Reuben Droughns gets nicked the Browns depth chart says they’ll turn to Jason Wright who amassed all of 27 yards rushing in 2005. The Browns added Willie McGinest from the Pats to play linebacker. McGinest will provide leadership and maturity to be sure; how much ability he has left to be an impact player is far less certain. I think the Browns will regress from six wins last year because their division is a tough one; I’ll give them 4 wins and another high draft pick next spring.

AFC East:

For the past several years, someone writing a preseason analysis either conceded this division to the Patriots or took a flyer on some other team knowing that you could crow about it if a miracle happened and they beat out the Pats. In the end, the Pats prevailed. Now in 2006, they might actually be challenged seriously in the AFC East.

The Pats took some hits in the off-season; they lost some quality players to free agency and Father Time; they also lost their defensive coordinator who had barely warmed the seat left there by Romeo Crennel when Crennel departed two years ago. Tom Brady is still there and so is Bill Belichick; I think they improved their running game by adding Laurence Maroney in the draft – I really liked him when I saw him last year. The Deion Branch contretemps looks ugly and will not likely achieve closure in a constructive way with the Pats. That leaves the WR corps a bit thin but youngster, Brandon Childress, looked good in the exhibition games. I’ll give the Pats 11 wins this year and give them the division title on the basis of a tiebreaker with the team that can actually challenge them this year.

And that worthy challenger would be the Miami Dolphins. Winning 9 games last year showed that the team was in fact on the rebound especially when you realize that they won 9 games with AJ Feely and Gus Frerotte under center. Adding Duante Culpepper with Joey Harrington coming off the bench clearly upgrades the physical talent at the QB position but it does add some question marks too. Culpepper’s knee injury last year was a huge one; he blew out all the ligaments in one knee at the same time; that’s a major rehab issue that has to be overcome. The other question mark about Culpepper is that he is an instinctive player who has relied on his cannon-arm and strong legs to make plays; he’s not thought of as a “reader of defenses”. Well, if his mobility is reduced, that will remove one of the ways that he manifests his instincts. Ronnie Brown will have to be the feature back this season because Ricky Williams is marinating in the CFL for a year and Sammy Morris will miss the first four games on a “substance-abuse suspension” that reportedly is for the active ingredient in Sudafed. What? Before everyone gets carried away with the Dolphins late season charge last year, consider that the Dolphins were 15th in the league in points scored and 16th in the league in points allowed last year. Also, they were 14th in the league in total offense and 18th in the league in total defense. Folks, that means they were average for 2005. I see improvement here for 2006. I’ll give the Dolphins 11 wins this year and put them in the playoffs as a wild card team.

One of the other teams in the division has to finish third so I guess it will be the Buffalo Bills by default. The Bills got younger on the field during the off-season by losing Sam Adams, Lawyer Milloy and Eric Moulds. And the addition of rookie safety Donte Whitner won’t hurt the defensive secondary. The Bills also got older in the front office with the addition of Marv Levy and on the sidelines with the addition of Dick Jauron. You have to feel sorry for Jauron; in his previous coaching stint, he had to deal with the Chicago Bears’ offensive output; now he has to try to score points with JP Losman (he was 1-7 as a starter last year), Kelly Holcomb and/or Craig Nall as the starting QB. No peeking or Googling now, how many of you know where Nall played last year and what he’s been doing for the past four seasons? That’s right; he’s been Brett Favre’s back up in Green Bay so labeling him as “untested” would be appropriate. I’ll give the Bills 5 wins this year simply because they won 5 games last year and I can’t see them improving.

The bottom dwellers in this division will be the Jets. Chad Pennington will be back as the starting QB; that is a good news/bad news situation. The bad news is that Pennington never was blessed with a huge arm and with multiple shoulder surgeries/rehabs, it’s not likely to become a cannon right about now. The good news is that as long as he can play at all, that will keep Patrick Ramsey on the sidelines. Ramsey has a cannon for an arm and a BB’s worth of instinct. When he drops back to pass, he locks in on his primary receiver like a Rottweiler on a pork chop; he ignores other open receivers and he ignores blitzing defenders. In case you haven’t figured it out, that is not a success strategy; and if Ramsey has to play a lot, the Jets will have even less success than I expect. It’s possible the rookie QB, Kellen Clemens, is the best QB on the squad; but with the rest of the weapons on the Jets’ offense, putting Clemens in there may be like tossing out that proverbial pork chop to a Rottweiler. Do not be surprised if the Jets look to acquire a cheap veteran QB sometime during the year and let Ramsey go. If Clemens shows promise, I think they’d make that move in a heartbeat. Curtis Martin won’t play for the early part of the season and may never play again; that’s a huge loss for the Jets because Martin is a Hall of Fame RB. His replacement will be Kevan Barlow who is not a Hall of Fame RB. Oh, and the Jets new offensive coordinator has never called any plays in the NFL until now; how’s that going to help? It’s a shame that DT Tui Alailefaleula is on IR; I really wanted him to play a bit next to Kimo von Oelhoffen; talk about a tongue twister when they are both in on a tackle. I’ll give the Jets 3 wins this year and the first pick in next year’s draft. That should provide off-season fun just listening to Jets’ fans analyze the possibilities for the Jets with the team “on the clock” for about four months.

So the AFC playoffs will be:

Denver (Bye)
Indy (Home Field Advantage)
New England
Pitts/Cincy/Balt Tiebreak Winner
Miami
Pitts/Cincy/Balt Tiebreak 2nd place team

Pay attention to the head-to head match-ups in AFC North this year…

NFC West:

This division is going to put the “Loser of the Super Bowl Jinx” to a stern test. For the last five years, the loser of the Super Bowl has not made it to the playoffs in the following year. In order for that to happen in 2006, the Seattle Seahawks will have to lose this division and fail to make a wild-card berth. Injuries can lay low even the best of teams for a season; and frankly, that’s what it will take for the Seahawks not to win this division this year.

The Seattle Seahawks just have too much talent to lose this division unless Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander both go down early and for a long time. This team is balanced on offense and solid on defense; no other team in their division can say that with a straight face. The schedule is not nearly as formidable as some others but the Seahawks will not sneak up on anyone this year. So, I’ll pay homage to the Super Bowl Losers Jinx and say that the Seahawks will not do as well as they did last year. I’ll give them only 12 wins in 2006 and a comfortable stroll to the division championship.

The most intriguing team in the NFC West is the Arizona Cardinals. Last year they had no running game at all; on 40% of their running plays, they either had no gain or a loss on the play; JJ Arrington and Marcel Shipp were awful. Or was it their offensive line that was awful? We may find out this year because Edgerrin James is a quality back and now the offensive line just needs to open holes for him to find – assuming they can. The offensive line also needs to protect Kurt Warner whose body has been brittle for the past few seasons. If Matt Leinart or John Navarre has to take snaps for a half dozen games, the Cards might just as well turn their new stadium into an amusement park. Danny Boy Snyder might pay to make it another Six Flags venue, no? The Cards reportedly have sold out the entire stadium for the entire home schedule and that is a big step forward for this franchise. Remember, the Cards have had only 2 winning seasons in the last 18 and only 1 playoff appearance in the last 23 seasons and no playoff victories since 1948; taking a step forward for this franchise is not setting the bar very high. I’ll give the Cards 8 wins this year which will put them in second place in this mediocre division and which will give them 50% more wins than last season.

The St. Louis Rams will finish third here only because the 49ers won’t. The Rams no longer have the Mike Martz philosophy - win on offense and don’t lose on defense – but they are also missing Marshall Faulk. The new coach, Scott Linehan, wants to run the ball more this year and he wants an attacking defense – so he brought in Jim Haslett to try to get the defense to do that. The problem is that the Rams defense just isn’t laden with talent and so the scheme may not be the answer here. The Rams brought in LaRoi Glover to play DT and hopefully to show Jimmy Kennedy what it takes to become a real DT in the NFL. If these two don’t improve over 2005 performances, the Rams defense may be like last year’s unit – the one that gave up 429 points. The Rams won 6 games last year. I’ll give them some improvement to 7 wins for 2006 because their schedule is not exactly a killer.

And then, there are the San Francisco 49ers. For the 2005 season, you had to admire the consistency of this team. They had the 30th ranked offense in terms of points scored and they had the 30th ranked defense in terms of points allowed. They also had the worst offense in terms of yardage gained and the worst defense in terms of yardage allowed. The 49ers were consistently horrid. They can’t get any worse, can they? Forget flying pigs, it will take a lot more than that for the 49ers to challenge for a playoff slot, but the addition of Norv Turner to be the offensive coordinator and work with Alex Smith has to be a plus. Turner has flopped as a head coach twice, but he has a solid track record as an offensive coordinator. For reasons I don’t understand, rookie tight end, Vernon Davis, is already the highest paid TE in the NFL; he better produce on the field. I wonder if the punter on the 49ers will be the most important player on the squad this year; that was certainly the case last year. Mike Nolan is a no nonsense old-school kind of guy that I can relate to. So, I’ll give the team 5 wins this year because I really want them to show some improvement under Nolan.

NFC South:

Like the AFC North, this is a “Sesame Street Division” for 2006. You remember the old Sesame Street game where three of these things belong together but one of these things is not quite the same, right? Well there are three teams in this division that are going to be pretty tough and one team that will be anything but. So, let’s all get in touch with our inner child and start to sing that song from Sesame Street,

Three of these things belong together.
Three of these things are kind of the same.
One of these things just doesn’t belong here,
Now it’s time to play our game …

Everyone likes the Panthers this year and lots of people say they will be the NFC Super Bowl representative. I like Carolina too, but I can’t put them in the Super Bowl just yet because I can’t give them home field advantage in the playoffs. The reason for that is their schedule. Not only do they play the other good teams in the NFC South, they play the NFC East this year. I think that will prevent the division winner here – or in the NFC East – from having home field advantage in the playoffs. The only question mark for the Panthers at the moment is the running attack. DeShaun Foster has not shown that he is durable enough to be an NFL featured running back and behind him is the highly regarded but totally unproven DeAngelo Williams. Adding Keyshawn Johnson as a possession receiver should help; anything that takes even a few double teams away from Steve Smith has to be a plus. The Panthers added two wide-bodies in the middle of the DL, Ma’ake Kemoeatu and Damione Lewis, to help defend against the run. Unfortunately, they lost their best linebacker, Will Witherspoon, and another productive linebacker, Brandon Short. I’ll give the Panthers 10 wins this year and the division championship on the basis of a tiebreaker.

Another good team in this division resides in Tampa Bay. I know that Chris Simms is young and that with Tim Rattay behind him there isn’t much to turn to if anything goes wrong here. But I like the way Simms played at the end of last year and I do believe in genetics so I think Simms can be a productive NFL QB; this is the year he’ll show it. Carnell Williams needs to stay healthy too for the Bucs to succeed. The Bucs will not survive their schedule with a running attack consisting of Mike Alstott, Earnest Graham and Michael Pittman. The Bucs had the #1 defense overall last season but they lost their defensive line coach and their secondary coach. I like the Bucs a lot but that schedule forces me to give them only 10 wins this year. That’s one less than in 2005 but that’s not because I think the team is worse.

The Falcons will be a good team too; but as you must know by now, I am not one of the “Michael Vick acolytes”. In the old single-wing days – and I was around to see some of that era – Vick would have been a truly superior tailback. He is still a fine running back but the problem is that he plays quarterback and one thing an NFL QB has to do more than once in a while is drop back, look over the defense and deliver an accurate pass downfield. In that aspect of the game, Vick has shown only marginal to journeyman capability. And while I’m at it, the WR corps is not something that will strike fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators around the league either despite the trade for Ashley Lelie – a legend in his own mind. The Falcons defense was in the middle of the pack last year so they added John Abraham and Grady Jackson to the DL. If both of them have top-notch years, the defense could be in the Top-10; more likely is that it will again be in the middle of the pack. I’ll give the Falcons 9 wins this year and no seat at the playoff table.

The Saints will go marching back into New Orleans this year. The Saints will have a good running back tandem in Deuce McAlister and Reggie Bush. The Saints will be upgraded at QB with Drew Brees there in place of Aaron Brooks. Having said all that, the only way this team makes the playoffs is for the other three teams in the division to forfeit all of their games outside the division. Come to think of it, even then, the Saints might not make it. Last year, the Saints did not average 15 points a game on offense but the defense sank to similar depths allowing almost 25 points a game. Nothing short of a miracle will allow this team to reverse those numbers this season. I’ll give the Saints 4 wins this year which is an improvement over 2005 but only because I really do want the Jets to have the worst record in the NFL. The Saints could once again have the second pick in the draft and could have another star fall to them in the draft if the Jets “lose it” on draft day. I can hear the howling from the NY fans in the draft venue from here…

NFC North:

This used to be the “Black and Blue division”. Now it is the “M in M” division - the “Mired in Mediocrity” division. There are no outstanding teams here and no team is so bad that it can’t beat one of the other division members on any given Sunday.

Even though all of the teams here have some significant flaws, someone has to win the division and so I’ll pick the team with what seem to be the fewest significant flaws. That would be the Chicago Bears whose flaw is a lack of offense and no WR receiver who is a deep threat. But the Bears’ defense is very good and very young so if they can run the ball at all, they should find ways to win in this division. There’s a lot of excitement around the return of Rex Grossman – again. Grossman has been hurt three years in a row and has never started four NFL games in succession. In fact, he’s only started seven games in his career. If he goes out again this year, he can retire the trophy for MFP – Most Fragile Player. Behind Grossman are Brian Griese – never one of my favorites – and Kyle Orton – an aspiring journeyman. Bears’ fans will have to deal with the shock of seeing at least one of these guys because it would not be a good bet that Grossman will take all the snaps this year. Nevertheless, the schedule is squishy-soft and I’ll give the Bears 11 wins and a playoff bye on the basis of better conference record this year.

I like the Vikings and the Lions to chase the Bears in this division. The Vikings have a new coach and have shuffled Duante Culpepper off to Miami and have added Steve Hutchinson at OG and Chester Taylor at RB. That’s all well and good, but the Vikes were 9-7 last season and that was not good enough to keep the coaching staff around for 48 hours after the season ended. If the new ownership/management of the Vikes thinks this team will do better, they may be sorely disappointed. Even with a soft schedule, there are too many question marks to let me project an improved record. I’ll give the Vikes 8 wins and no shot at the playoffs.

The Lions also have a new coach, a new QB, and a couple of new offensive linemen. Having a new QB in Detroit is almost as regular an event as the arrival of winter there. Since 1992, there have been 13 different starting QBs in Detroit; Jon Kitna will make it 14 on opening day 2006. If you can name half of this list of losers, you have spent too much time poring over fantasy football draft lists in the last decade. The Lions’ new coach is a martinet who wants his team to be tough guys. Good luck with that one, Coach. Probably the biggest additions here are bringing in Mike Martz to try to put those electric paddles across the chest of the Lions’ moribund offense and the addition-by-subtraction of Charles Rogers. There have been lots of #2 picks in the draft who have been busts but now Michigan State University jumps to the head of that list giving the NFL Tony Mandarich and Charles Rogers. The Lions will do better than last year’s 5 wins. I’ll give them 7 wins this year.

And then there are the Green Bay Packers. Unlike the Lions, stability at the QB position is not a problem in Green Bay. Since 1992 – while the Lions have had 14 starting QBs – the Packers have had one, Brett Favre. The problem in 2006 is really very simple. Brett Favre is not the QB he was several years ago and the talent around him is not very good. There was a time when Favre’s game made everyone else look better than they actually were; if that happens this year it will only be because these other guys are decidedly mediocre and he’ll make them look semi-competent. The Packers are a mess and they’ll have to scratch to win 4 games in 2006.

NFC East:

I saved this one for last because this division is the most enigmatic of them all. All four teams can win this division and all four teams can finish dead last in the division. And all the schedules are hard because the NFC East and the NFC South play each other this year. The winner of the division will be the team that can cobble together 10 wins. Since I expect them to beat each other up in divisional play, there will only be one such team. Remember, these predictions for this division are a guess and nothing more because it could turn upside down and I’d be only slightly surprised.

The division winners will be the Dallas Cowboys. I love the Dallas defense. The potential ways this train can get off the track are for the offensive line to collapse, Drew Bledsoe to go south and/or Terrell Owens’ ego to explode - which would be of a magnitude to take out the entire Cowboys’ training facility. The one that really might happen is the offensive line collapsing. At one point in the training camp sessions, the Cowboys had Jason Fabini, Marco Colombo and Rob Petitti playing on the line. That sounds like a cast of characters from The Untouchables and in Dallas they better hope that these guys can keep Drew Bledsoe - - untouchable. The Cowboys gave up 50 sacks last year; they better find a way to reduce that number by 40% this season. I’ll give the Cowboys 10 wins and the division championship this year.

The team that finishes second in the NFC East will be the last wildcard team in the playoffs this season. And I’ll pick the Philadelphia Eagles to be that team. The Eagles running game will depend on keeping running back, Brian Westbrook healthy for the year; that’s not starting out all that well. But Donovan McNabb is healthy again and even though they have no playmakers at WR, that’s the situation they had several years ago when they went to three consecutive NFC championship games. The Eagles’ defense was not that good last year but they’ve added Darren Howard and Broderick Bunkley to the DL and they’ll add Jerome McDougle to the DL assuming he doesn’t get shot again or fall out of a helicopter without a parachute. I’ll give the Eagles 9 wins this year and a place in the playoffs after winning a tiebreaker with the Atlanta Falcons based on an Eagles’ win in the final game of the season against the Falcons on New Year’s Eve in Philly.

The Washington Redskins will finish third in the NFC East. If Clinton Portis’ shoulder is a nagging injury for the entire year, that will hurt the running attack. TJ Duckett can be a fill-in back but he has yet to demonstrate that he can be a feature back in the NFL for any length of time. If Mark Brunell plays the way he did in the first nine games last year, the Skins offense will be just fine; if he plays the way he did at the end of last year, the Skins will scrape to score points - - as they did in the exhibition games. And being a contrarian by nature, I’m not really enamored with the WRs on the Redskins. Santana Moss had a great year last year but that’s the extent of the résumés for this group. Brandon Lloyd will make one spectacular catch for every ball he drops after getting both hands on it; the Skins used to have a receiver like that; fans called Rod Gardner “50/50”. David Patten and Antwaan Randle-El are OK but not much more than that; please do not confuse them with Jerry Rice and John Taylor. The Skins’ offensive line is paper-thin. The starters are fine but the reserves are really mediocre. On defense, the Skins will rely on blitzes and big hitters because they certainly don’t have the talent to just line up and beat the guy across from them straight up on every play. Adam Archuletta is the new strong safety and he’s a big hitter to go with Sean Taylor. But neither of these guys in man-up situations can be counted on to cover the goal line pylon. I’ll give the Redskins 8 wins this year after acknowledging that they were the hands-down NFL champs in making the biggest noises regarding free agent signings last March.

Somebody has to be last in this division – and as I said they might be first – and that would be the “NY Football Giants”. By the way, why does anyone say that anymore? The “NY Baseball Giants” left town about 50 years ago; can there still be any confusion here? Yes, I like Eli Manning and yes, I think he will continue to improve as a QB. But I’m not sold on the Giants’ defense nearly enough to think they can overcome the schedule they have. Take a look at who they have to play between now and November 20. The only mediocre team in there is Houston on Nov 5. I think the schedule will jump up and bite this team on the butt and I’ll give them only 6 wins for the season. But the NY Giants are a talented football team; make no mistake about that.

So the NFC Playoffs will be:

Seattle (Home Field Advantage)
Chicago (Bye)
Carolina
Dallas
Tampa
Philly

And if you’ve been reading carefully, you will see the answer to a question that should have gotten more attention than it has. The NFL has 8 rookie head coaches – a full 25% of the NFL coaching fraternity – this year; so which one will win the most games?

I think Eric Mangini (Jets) and Mike McCarthy (Packers) have no chance in this race; they are in an Olympic sprint event carrying refrigerators on their backs.

Sean Payton (Saints) has a new QB, Reggie Bush and a real home field this year; even that’s not nearly enough.

Dick Jauron (Bills) has no quarterback and lots of young players; he has no shot here.

Gary Kubiak (Texans) will improve over last year’s abominable record but not by enough to take the gold star here.

Scott Linehan (Rams) is missing Marshall Faulk and a defense he can rely on; he might be in the running for a while but he won’t win this race.

Rod Marinelli (Lions) will at least have a “certified offensive genius” as his offensive coordinator while he runs the team like drill sergeant runs boot camp. That and a soft schedule will get him into the exacta here.

Brad Childress (Vikes) will combine a soft schedule with more talent spread around the team than these other guys to win this event. Remember, however, all I said was that the Vikings would break even this year.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…