The Sports Curmudgeon

When I sit down to handicap a $5000 claiming race at Dogbreath Downs, I expect to find a field of horses full of inconsistent performances. In cheap claiming races, the animals are there for a reason; they aren’t good racehorses. Some days they run; other days they canter along; sometimes they just walk. My handicapping strategy for that kind of race is to find the three or four horses in the field that are so bad that I would not bet them to in a race against a three-toed sloth. Doing that lets me avoid paying any attention to these horses and convinces me that I really do have a shot at guessing which of those mules will decide to run on that particular day. Like that happens a lot…

That is not the way I approach handicapping for the Kentucky Derby because when I look at the Derby, I usually can find four or five horses that may not be a reincarnation of Secretariat, but they usually are quality animals with a fairly consistent pattern of racing. That may not be the case for Saturday’s race.

Let me be polite. This field is flawed. There are no standout horses; in fact there aren’t really any horses that you can be confident in the way they will run in the race. If I were approaching this like a cheap claimer at some downtrodden track and looking to throw out horses that can’t possibly win, I might throw out the whole field. Let me explain.

Smarty Jones is undefeated. But he hasn’t run against top-flight competition to be as polite as I can; this will be his first Grade 1 Stakes race. And his times are underwhelming to boot. He’ll come from the 15-post position, which means he will run further than a bunch of other horses and ought to be very wide on the first turn. Oh swell.

If you think that kind of analysis might make you hesitant to bet on Smarty Jones, consider Pro Prado. He comes from the 19-post position, which is worse than Smarty Jones, and Pro Prado has chased Smarty Jones home three times already. Unimpressive.

Lion Heart is a front-runner who hasn’t always been able to hold the lead against late closing horses. This race is longer than he’s ever run. And he’s lightly raced. And he hasn’t won a race this year. Shall I go on?

“Lightly raced” is also a polite way to describe Castledale and Tapit.

Tapit did from last to first to win the Wood Memorial impressively; if he tries to come from last in this race he’ll be lucky to finish 5th. From the top of the final turn until the finish line there will be a lot of horses to dodge around and more than a couple of them will be spent and will be running in reverse.

Limehouse would be only marginally interesting if he were coming from the perfect post position. He is coming from the #1 hole meaning that he will either gun it to the front or get shuffled back to 10th on the rail and have to swing wide to get around a traffic jam of horses. His morning line odds are 30-1; that’s not enough.

Read the Footnotes and Friend’s Lake have been AWOL during all the prep races. Neither one has raced in about 8 weeks. Birdstone has also been on an “extended vacation”. Read the Footnotes gets an extra look from me because Robby Alberado will ride him and I have cashed more than a few tickets on horses ridden by Alberado on the Kentucky racing circuit.

The favorite is The Cliff’s Edge. He is probably going to make a late run but in a field of 20 that could get him into traffic problems he’s never seen before. He chased Tapit home in the Florida Derby. Shane Sellers is aboard and Sellers is usually a good tactical rider so there is a glimmer of hope that he’ll not get into a racing bind. But that’s as far as I’m willing to go.

Wimbledon looked like a real contender for the Triple Crown races until his last race – which happened to be his only Grade 1 Stakes race. He got waxed in that one finishing fifth and “up the track” as they say down by the rail. In the more genteel parlance of racing, he finished a non-threatening fifth.

St Averil was in that same Grade 1 race with Wimbledon. Let’s be polite and say that St. Averil had a good view of Wimbledon staggering across the finish line because St. Averill wasn’t at the finish line yet.

Borrego loves to finish second. He started three races this year and finished second in every one of them. He chased three different entrants here home in those three races. If I could only have some confidence he would do that on Saturday, I’d bet everyone else to win the race with Borrego to run second. I doubt that will be my wagering strategy…

So what to do with this mess? I’ll consider the following horses – presented here in alphabetical order because none of them are worthy of “top billing” - as contenders by squinting and refusing to focus on the warts that are on all of them:

Read the Footnotes
Smarty Jones
Tapit
The Cliff’s Edge
Wimbledon

Both Tapit and Wimbledon are gray horses so I’ll have to play one exacta box with the two of them and call it the “Casper the Friendly Ghost exacta box”.

Other than that, I’ll wait until race time to see the exacta prices – which should be spectacular and put these 5 together in some kind of mixture.

The more interesting wagering of the day could be the Pick 4 in the final four races on the card at Churchill Downs. They are guaranteeing a $1M pool for the Pick 4 and hitting it will be very sweet – because hitting the Pick 4 means I managed to pick the winner in the Derby. Like that’s gonna happen…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

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