The Sports Curmudgeon

This weekend we will see the NFL Draft on ESPN. This has become a media event beyond any proportion to its impact. With 15 minutes allotted to each team in the first round to make some final calls and work the phones and just plain stall so “Boomer” and “Mel” and “Joey T” and company can “toss it around”, the event fills two days of TV.

Look, I do not have the ability even to pretend that I saw enough college football games last year to rate the top five players at every position. I do not have access to “coaching tapes” or anything like that. I do not have real or imagined sources in various parts of the country calling me with their evaluations or sending me e-mails or even communicating with me telepathically. Here is the basis of my analysis.

I watch college football on TV.

I keep a sheet of paper and a writing implement by the TV and make notes on players that I see who are impressive.

[Aside: This is why you won’t find many players from Whatsamatta U or many Division III players here. Those schools aren’t on TV so I only get to see those players in “all-star games”. If you really care about the prospects for Bigfoot Bucktooth out of Wherever College, send an e-mail to Mel Kiper Jr. He cares.]

About this time of year, I find where I put that sheet of paper – or maybe it’s three sheets clipped together by the end of the season – and try to decipher my very poor handwriting to create this analysis.

[Aside: Back in the days before word processors when office documents and memos were drafted in longhand and given to a secretary to type, I had a secretary who finally had it with my handwriting. She brought a paper into my office with my scrawl on it and said, “Look, your writing is hard enough to read under the best of circumstances so stop drafting these memos in a dark closet with a crayon between your toes!”]

Copy these names down and watch the draft – particularly on the second day – and see if you can spot some of these names on the crawl under the “action”. If you are watching with someone and see an obscure player picked in the later rounds, you can refer to these notes and pretend that you actually know the player from a corned beef sandwich.

I’ll go through this by position and tell you what my notes seem to say. This is a draft that some call the Year of the Quarterback. I don’t think this is the same as the year that produced Couch and McNabb and Culpepper in the first round in terms of top quality players. However, it may be the equal of that year in terms of disappointing first round picks [Akili Smith and Cade McNown] if teams get on a roll in terms of snapping up QBs. Since QBs were hyped all year, I tried to make notes on the ones getting publicity when I saw them and I was not nearly as impressed as I felt I should be given the hype. Here are my observations:

Byron Leftwich (Marshall): My favorite college QB. Big and strong and plays like Steve McNair. Good arm and good accuracy. Played with hairline fracture in his leg so he can “play with pain”. If I am drafting a QB, this is the guy I would take first.

Brad Banks (Iowa): Too small and not nearly an NFL arm. Can’t play.

Seneca Wallace (Iowa State): This is Brad Banks in another town in Iowa. Have these two guys ever been seen in one room at the same time?

Kyle Boller (Cal): I saw him throw 3 TDs against Washington State and I was unimpressed. He has a long and slow delivery/release of the ball and I think that could be fatal in the NFL. He does have a very strong arm and can throw the ball a long long way.

Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech): Cannot throw long at all. I suspect he does not have an arm to equal Steve Walsh or Danny Woeful. I would not draft him at all.

Ken Dorsey (Miami): If he gets drafted in the first two rounds this weekend, the NFL should immediately institute drug testing for front office people. I don’t think he can play at the NFL level at all.

Rex Grossman (Fla): He will not be an immediate impact anywhere in the NFL. Maybe he can develop into a decent QB; maybe not? I saw him several times and he was horrible against Mississippi. NFL defenses will be tougher than Mississippi’s; count on that.

Jason Gesser (Washington State): He isn’t very big but he has a good arm and good accuracy. He might be a solid #2 QB in the NFL for a while. I’d take a shot on him in the later rounds.

Chris Simms (Texas): If you believe in genetics, you take this kid anytime after the first round and give him a chance to develop. I like his instincts and his accuracy.

Dave Raggone (Louisville): Big kid with a big arm but here is the note I have on my sheet of paper: “Awkward/Clumsy. How did he live past the age of 3 without falling down a flight of stairs and breaking his neck?”

Carson Palmer (USC): The consensus “best player available”. If you take him at #1, be prepared to pay him a $12-14M signing bonus. And be prepared for him to under-perform your expectations because he had only one good year in college after three decidedly mediocre ones. I like Leftwich better than Palmer, and I like Simms as much as I like Palmer.

This was not a good year for running backs in college. Usually, I have several players on my listing who are not widely mentioned in the mock drafts and other silliness of that sort. This year, the pickings are very slim.

Chris Brown (Colorado): Big kid and strong runner and has good enough speed. I was not impressed with his ability to catch the ball. This is my top running back based on what I saw.

Willis McGahee (Miami): He was clearly the best RB I saw all year until the injury. Given that rookies can be real salary cap bargains in the last couple of years of their contracts, I’d take a chance on McGahee in the second round because if he comes back to 90% of what he showed last year, he will be a steal – until it comes time to negotiate that second contract. Do not put any “voidable years” in his rookie deal!

Larry Johnson (Penn State): Jekyll and Hyde. Looked great once and then looked miserable the next time I saw him. Second or third round in my opinion due to inconsistency.

Lee Suggs (Va Tech): Lots of hype about him but I don’t get it. He does not look special to me in any way. He has bad hands!

BJ Askew (Michigan): Big guy who runs very hard between the tackles. He catches the ball well and runs after the catch. Blocked well too.

LaBrandon Tofield (LSU): Built like a bowling ball but he is pretty fast. Good hands. Might be a really good pick in the lower rounds?

If you think it was a lean year for RBs, I have precisely one (1) fullback on my list of people who were impressive during last season.

Ovie Mughelli (Wake Forest): Blocks well for run and for pass. As a lead blocker, he usually drives his man backwards. Looks like he weighs about 260-270 lbs.

I don’t have a lot of notes about wide receivers here either.

Charles Rogers (Mich St): Very fast and very elusive running with the ball and good hands. Drug test “irregularity” raises a red flag and if it is true that his Wonderlic Test score was only 7, then you have a person who may take a very long time to learn to do what you want him to do – if he can learn it at all.

Andre Johnson (Miami): He is big for a WR and very fast with good hands. I never saw him block anyone so I have no idea if he knows how to do that at all. He looks to me like Charles Rogers without the drug concerns – at least for now.

Mike Bush (Washington State): A tall string-bean of a player with good hands and good jumping ability. He’s not very fast but might be a really good possession receiver.

Chris Morris (Harvard): I never saw him play a down but I have to make one observation here. There is talk of him being a second round pick and maybe “sneaking up”. Playing against Ivy League competition at a skill position is not good preparation. According to the stats, he crushed the secondary against Northeastern but in the “big Ivy League games” against Penn for the championship he had 1 catch and against Yale in the rivalry game he had 4. I am very suspicious here and if I am running the draft for a team, I look to sign this guy as an undrafted free agent.

I have two tight ends on my list here with notes beside their names.

Sean Berton (NC State): He is huge; the stats on TV said he was 275 lbs. He is a possession receiver with good hands. When he catches the ball, he just runs straight ahead. The next tackler he eludes with a fake will be the first one…

Ben Watson (Georgia): Good hands and reasonable speed. He is a good run blocker.

On the offensive line I tend to lump folks together because players can and do play multiple positions.

Ben Johnson (Wisconsin): Good run blocker and adequate pass blocker. Seems sufficiently athletic to be taught to pass block in the NFL. Should go high in the draft.

Steve Sciullo (Marshall): Big and a very good pass blocker. Marshall did not run the ball much when I saw them and so I really don’t know if he is a good run blocker. If this guy is still around at the end of the second round, he should be scarfed up quickly.

Sean Mahan (Notre Dame): Good run blocker and adequate pass blocker.

Zach Wilson (USC): Good fundamentals of blocking and good footwork. Never seems to be off balance. Should go high in the draft.

Dan Koppen (BC): They said on the telecast that he has played every line position but was a center when I saw him. The stats said he was 305 lbs and yet he seemed pretty agile. Worth a late round pick.

Before making a tour through the defensive positions, I notice that I have only one punter and no place-kickers on my list here. So let me get this out of the way quickly:

Mark Mariscal (Colorado): He’s a big guy who punts high and deep.

On the defensive line, I liked some of the guys who have gotten all of the press attention leading up to the draft – and I liked a couple of guys that haven’t gotten a whisper of coverage.

Terrell Suggs (ASU): They ought to name this guy Raymond because everyone loves him. He is a fine pass rusher but I think they blocked him very effectively on running plays with NCAA level blockers. That concerns me if I’m a GM thinking of making him a top 5 pick for the NFL.

Jimmy Kennedy (Penn State): Good run stopper and good pursuit. His inside pass rush was much better than most other DTs. Here is a concern. They said that when he came to PSU from high school he weighed over 400 lbs and that he had to work his way down to a playing weight of 335. Weight problems are not something I want to hear if I am a GM looking to make him a top 5 pick in the draft.

William Joseph (Miami): Big, strong, fast and aggressive. I liked him a lot because I put a big asterisk next to his name.

Ken Petersen (Ohio State): Big and strong against the run. Put on good pass pressure from the DT spot. He is not fast but he comes off the ball and into the blocking situation quickly. There was a report – I think it was on ESPN.com – about a week ago that he had been doing too much partying and not enough weightlifiting since the football season ended. If that’s the case, GMs should be wary.

Tyler Brayton (Colorado): Hustled on every play and was strong against the run. Tackled well.

Jimmy Wilkerson (Oklahoma): Strong and fast on the outside pass rush but not strong against the run.

Usually, I have lots of linebackers on my list because teams put athletic players in those positions and they stand out on TV. This year I have only 4 names on my list and none come from Penn State:

Boss Bailey (Georgia): Yes, he is Champ Bailey’s brother. I wonder if his parents had another son would they name him Emperor Bailey? Or would they pick a more common name like Bill? Boss seemed to be involved in about 75% of the plays; he always hustled and was always where the ball was.

Drew Wahlros (Colorado): He too was always were the ball was and importantly, he is a really good tackler. That is not very common anymore. He hits people low and wraps them up; he is not a headhunter.

Matt Wilhelm (Ohio State): Good against the run and solid tackling fundamentals. His liability may be foot speed. He might earn the nickname “plunger foot”

Brady James (LSU): Good speed and good tackler. He can – and did – run down plays from behind that were going to the other side of the field. He has the tools to be a good “cover linebacker”.

Finally, the DBs where I have 5 names on my list and none of the names are Terence Newman who is potentially the first pick in the draft by the Bengals. I can’t recall seeing K-State last year so that is probably the explanation. It is also possible that if I did see K-State play, the other team did not throw the ball anywhere near Newman on that day and so I would not know he was on the field. Remember I don’t have scouting reports in hand when I sit down to watch a game. Here are my defensive backs:

Namdi Asomugha (Cal): Big and fast and a solid hitter. He will probably be a CB in the NFL

Andre Woolfolk (Oklahoma): Played lots of man-to-man coverage when I saw him and he was always in position to make a play on the ball. Solid tackler too. He’ll be a CB in the NFL

Ken Hamlin (Arkansas): Hits like a truck and has speed to get to plays from sideline to sideline. He played safety when I saw him but he might be made over into a CB in the NFL because he is fast.

Rashean Mathis (Bethune Cookman): You want fast? This guy will be nicknamed “rocket foot”. Announcers talk about “closing speed”; this guy has closing speed and opening speed and any other kind of speed you want. He seemed to have decent coverage skills and tackled well. The question is the level of competition he faced and the jump from that level to the NFL. I’d take him just because he can run so well.

Ralph Turner (Purdue): Good size and a sound tackler, but he is not very fast. In fact he is slow. But as a strong safety, he might be worth a look in the later rounds of the draft…

Just remember when you hear Mel Kiper talk about someone who “plays well in space”, they don’t allow people to wear oxygen tanks in the NFL so that skill is of no real value.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…